Gulf countries are facing growing pressure to strengthen their own defence capabilities while maintaining close security ties with the United States, experts said during a recent discussion on the region’s evolving strategic environment.
The debate comes as tensions across the Middle East continue to expose vulnerabilities around air defence, critical infrastructure, shipping routes and energy supplies. Against that backdrop, specialists argue that Gulf states need to become more capable of responding independently without abandoning established international security partnerships.
The emerging approach is not being framed as a choice between self-reliance and American support. Instead, experts increasingly see Gulf security as requiring stronger national capabilities, deeper cooperation among GCC members and a broader network of international partners.
Gulf states face a changing security landscape
Prof. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a non-resident senior associate at the Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research, identified Iran as a major long-term security challenge for the Gulf.
He argued that no individual Gulf country could realistically manage the region’s security challenges entirely on its own. Collective defence, therefore, remains essential as threats become more sophisticated and less predictable.
At the same time, Abdulla pointed to the UAE’s ability to respond independently when necessary, highlighting the importance of developing national deterrence alongside broader regional security arrangements.
The underlying message is clear: Gulf countries want greater freedom to protect their interests, but that does not necessarily mean replacing the United States as their principal external security partner.
Cheap drones are changing the economics of defence
One of the most significant challenges discussed by the experts is the growing use of relatively inexpensive drones and other asymmetric weapons.
Firas Maksad, managing director of the Middle East and North Africa practice at Eurasia Group, highlighted the increasingly uneven economics of modern warfare. Low-cost unmanned systems can force countries to deploy far more expensive interception and defence technologies.
That imbalance is pushing Gulf governments to reconsider how they build and finance air and missile defence systems.
The issue goes beyond the purchase of additional equipment. It also raises questions about domestic production, technology transfers, maintenance capabilities and the ability of countries to respond rapidly without depending entirely on foreign suppliers.
For Gulf states, developing local defence industries could therefore become an increasingly important component of long-term national security.
Air defence has moved to the top of the agenda
Dr. Zafer Al-Ajmi, executive director of the Gulf Monitoring Group in Kuwait, said the region’s military priorities have already shifted significantly.
Air defence, he noted, has become a central concern as drones, missiles and other aerial threats increasingly feature in regional conflicts.
He described Gulf security as a structure involving several levels: national military capabilities, GCC collective security, international allies, wider Arab defence arrangements and relationships with friendly countries.
Countries such as Pakistan and Türkiye could play increasingly important roles within this wider network. However, experts stressed that these relationships currently complement rather than fully replace American capabilities.
The United States retains an unmatched ability to deploy substantial military power over long distances and respond quickly to developments in the Gulf.
Moving from dependence to strategic choice
Dr. Khalid Al-Jufairi, an adjunct associate professor of international politics at Georgetown University in Qatar, proposed a more flexible model for Gulf security.
Rather than depending heavily on one country or supplier, Gulf states could develop what he described as a modular security structure.
Such a system would allow different partners to contribute according to the nature of a particular crisis. Defence relationships could consequently become more flexible, giving Gulf governments greater political and operational choices.
This approach does not attempt to eliminate foreign dependence altogether. Instead, it seeks to reduce vulnerability by ensuring that countries have multiple options available when security conditions change.
For Gulf governments, that flexibility could prove particularly valuable during periods of heightened regional tension.
Technology and local industries are becoming strategic priorities
Dr. Dania Thafer, executive director of the Gulf International Forum in the United States, stressed that technology access will be critical to the region’s future security planning.
Gulf countries are investing heavily in advanced technology, but experts say the next stage will require stronger domestic capabilities and partnerships with countries willing to share technology and expertise.
That includes developing local defence industries, strengthening technical skills and ensuring that critical infrastructure is protected against increasingly sophisticated threats.
Security planning is also expanding beyond conventional military targets.
Modern economies depend on digital networks, energy systems, telecommunications infrastructure, transportation links and other interconnected services. Protecting those systems is becoming as important as defending physical borders and military installations.
GCC cooperation remains central
The discussion also highlighted the importance of cooperation among the six Gulf Cooperation Council members.
Individual countries may have substantial financial resources and increasingly sophisticated military capabilities, but regional threats can cross national borders quickly.
A missile launched toward one country, an attack on shipping infrastructure or disruption to a major energy facility can have consequences across the wider Gulf.
Greater information sharing, coordinated air defence and joint planning could therefore strengthen the region’s ability to respond collectively.
Such cooperation could also allow Gulf countries to make more effective use of relationships with external partners.
The US remains difficult to replace
Despite calls for greater strategic autonomy, experts did not suggest that Gulf states are preparing to abandon Washington.
Instead, the emerging strategy appears to involve diversification while retaining the United States as a key security partner.
China, Russia, Türkiye, Pakistan and other countries can contribute to the Gulf’s economic, technological and security ambitions, but their capabilities and strategic relationships with the region differ.
The United States continues to possess substantial military infrastructure, logistical reach and rapid deployment capabilities in and around the Gulf.
That makes Washington difficult to replace in the short term, even as Gulf countries seek greater independence.
A broader security framework could emerge
The panel also considered whether a future regional security framework could eventually include Iran.
Such an arrangement would face major political and strategic obstacles, particularly while tensions remain high. But the possibility reflects a wider recognition that long-term Gulf stability cannot depend solely on military deterrence.
Diplomacy, regional dialogue and confidence-building measures could eventually complement defence preparations.
For now, however, Gulf countries appear focused on ensuring that they have sufficient capabilities to withstand immediate threats while developing a more resilient long-term security architecture.
What the new Gulf security model could look like
The experts’ views differed in emphasis, but several common themes emerged.
Gulf states are likely to continue investing in national defence while simultaneously strengthening GCC coordination. They are also expected to diversify international partnerships, expand local defence industries and seek greater access to advanced technology.
At the same time, the American security role is likely to remain important because of the scale and speed of US military capabilities.
The result could be a more diversified Gulf security model — one in which regional countries have greater capacity to act independently but retain multiple external partnerships when additional support is required.
As threats evolve from conventional attacks to drones, cyber risks, attacks on shipping and disruptions to critical infrastructure, the region’s security strategy is likely to become increasingly flexible.
For the Gulf, the objective may no longer be complete strategic independence. Instead, it is the ability to make its own choices when a crisis arrives.
